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Against the backdrop of the widespread uncertainty following the US strikes on Venezuela, the seizure of President Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “take back the oil”, one thing is clear – these actions create a deeply alarming precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the recent overnight operation witnessed its premier large-scale offensive on the continent of South America. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” the President stated.

The decision to unilaterally attack another independent nation and capture its head of state – only a few days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – has still wider repercussions. It should alarm us all.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has suggested that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other parts of the headless administration are far more intransigent.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who was elected vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He does not see the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is converting it into a lawless actor.

He holds the view that the US’s might permits it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: observe the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He claims that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this latest episode “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came lacking any form of UN approval or the consent of the US Congress; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to destroy them.

Set aside the message this sends to global powers like Russia and China, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will almost certainly fuel additional military gambits.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

It is widely rejected the justification that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is motivated by the promise of energy wealth as well as personal bravado, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the appetite for triumphalism as his support at home declines.

World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode underscores the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could potentially force him to turn attention back home – but soaring healthcare premiums, public anxiety over the economy and ongoing controversies fuel his desire for external drama.

Barely 12 months into his time in office. Other governments may regret it if they stay silent now, with the question of which nation is next looming.